Pakistan may face water crisis, warn experts

Courtesy:- Khaleeq Kiani 


ISLAMABAD, July 30: Despite having some rains this week, Pakistan may be heading towards an ‘acute water crisis’ which will seriously affect winter crops and create shortage of drinking water in some areas, warns a veteran weather pundit.



Sensitising the president, prime minister, provincial governments and relevant agencies and ministries, Dr Qamaruzzaman Chaudhry, adviser to the ministry of defence on meteorology and climate affairs, called for precautionary measures to deal with the looming crisis.

“All indicators are indicating that the country is fast heading towards an acute water crisis. This may lead to extreme irrigation water shortages, particularly for winter crops,” said Dr Qamar who served for decades as director general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
He told Dawn that present water levels in two major reservoirs – Tarbela and Mangla – were the lowest in many years. On Monday, the water level at Tarbela stood at 1,463 feet against its dead level of 1,378 feet and maximum conservation level of 1,550 feet.
Likewise, Mangla dam’s water level stood at 1,154 feet against its dead level of 1,040 feet and maximum level of 1,242 feet. Simly dam storage stood at 2,247 feet against its dead level of 2,233 feet and maximum level of 2,317 feet. The storage at Khanpur dam was recorded at 1,916 feet against its dead level of 1,910 feet and maximum level of 1,982 feet.
Dr Qamar, who is also vice-president of the World Meteorological Organisation-Asia, said below-the-usual temperatures during April, May and part of June coupled with low rainfall were contributing to the alarming situation.
He said an analysis indicated that Mangla and Tarbela dams might not be filled to their capacity, even if there was a revival of the monsoon activity. “This current situation, climate outlook and falling underground water levels can cause extreme irrigation water shortages for crops, particularly for winter crops. Some areas in the country may experience drinking water shortages too,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Met office on Monday forecast two-to-three spells of rain in parts of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, lower Sindh and Kashmir during the current week. “The trend of subdued monsoon rains will continue till mid-August,” it added.
A Met department spokesman said rapid development of El Nino conditions (i.e. warming of Tropical Pacific Ocean) had suppressed monsoon over parts of South Asia, leading to deficient rains over Pakistan. He said the Pakistan Meteorological Department had predicted 15 per cent above-normal rains during this season, but so far it had been far from normal.
Due to El Nino conditions, the rainfall has significantly increased over Southeast Asia and consequently it has decreased over South Asia. In coming days, more stormy rains are expected at a number of places in Southeast Asia (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Philippines and Japan) which will continue to cause a submissive monsoon in Pakistan and India, the Met office said.
DEGRADATION OF FORESTS: Arshad H. Abbasi, a water sector specialist, said continuous degradation of forests in catchment areas of Jhelum and Chenab rivers was likely to lead to severe drought in Indian-held Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and possibly a severe drought in lower riparian Indian states of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. Weaker monsoon has depleted Indian reservoirs to an alarming level.
“This is an alarming situation for Pakistan as its two major rivers – Jhelum and Chenab – are totally dependent on rainfall in Indian-held Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh,” Mr Abbasi said, adding there was evidence that the erratic monsoon in northwest India was because of massive deforestation in Kashmir.
“Unfortunately, this situation is not being taken seriously by the ministry of water and power or the ministry of climate change.
Weakening and variation of monsoon system can be directly attributed to uneven developments like massive deforestation in occupied Jammu and Kashmir with establishment of military bases in the cold and arid zone of Ladakh,” he said.
Reduced flow in Jhelum will also severely affect hydropower generation at the Mangla power station currently producing almost 35 per cent of total hydroelectricity.

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